Saturday, February 28, 2009

Market Bottom

I know this is a non-stock blog, but I know most people are still interested in stocks.

I've been reading a lot about where people think the market bottom will be. Most analysts think that the low end for earnings next year for the S&P will be around $63. Now if that is true, if we take a conservative 10 multiple, that brings the S&P to around $630 versus its close of $735 on 2/28/09.

Why is this important, well, a large portion of the gains in the market happen in the few years after the bottom, so people love to guess when the bottom is and make the greatest gains. Now there are people who think that the S&P could go to 450. So, you might want to wait till then to put your money in.

Lower

Lower still!

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